18 Jul · 13:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1371
FormLLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Wozniak
JW
🇵🇱Jakub Wozniak
ELO 1410
FormLWWLL
46%
54%
🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Wozniak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+39
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.