18 Jul · 13:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FW
🇵🇱Filip Witczak
ELO 1569
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Witczak
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1564
FormWWLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Witczak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H18-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.