18 Jul · 13:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1318
FormWWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Stapor
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1377
FormLLLLL
44%
56%
🌟Stapor goes over total as favourite 65% (31)
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+59
H2H25-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (25-8)