18 Jul · 13:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AL
🇵🇱Adam Linek
ELO 1466
FormWLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Dabrowski
ID
🇵🇱Igor Dabrowski
ELO 1469
FormLWLWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Dabrowski
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 43% · 2.33· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H24-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.