18 Jul · 14:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1364
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Stapor
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1378
FormWLLLL
48%
52%
🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H25-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.