18 Jul · 15:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DM
🇵🇱Daniel Morawiec
ELO 1493
FormWLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Baron
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1509
FormWWLWW
48%
52%
🌟Baron goes over total as favourite 69% (45)
Fair odds · Baron
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 38% · 2.64· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.