19 Jul · 05:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇵🇱Maksymilian Miastowski
ELO 1704
FormLLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Domin
MD
🇵🇱Maciej Domin
ELO 1708
FormWLWLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Domin
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.