19 Jul · 07:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OJ
🇵🇱Oskar Jadach
ELO 1522
FormWWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1539
FormWWLWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H4-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.