18 Jul · 17:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PG
🇵🇱Patryk Gamrot
ELO 1473
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Morawiec
DM
🇵🇱Daniel Morawiec
ELO 1486
FormLWLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Morawiec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~81 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H21-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.