18 Jul · 18:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MW
🇵🇱Miroslaw Warzecha
ELO 1650
FormWLLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Oracz
JO
🇵🇱Jacek Oracz
ELO 1715
FormLWWLL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+65
H2H19-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (19-12)