18 Jul · 19:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AK
🇵🇱Artur Kubiak
ELO 1549
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kubiak
JS
🇵🇱Jakub Skorupa
ELO 1523
FormLLLLW
53%
47%
🌟Kubiak covers set handicap as favourite 70% (43)
Fair odds · Kubiak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+26
H2H11-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.