18 Jul · 20:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GK
🇵🇱Gracjan Kesik
ELO 1500
FormWWLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Kesik
JM
🇵🇱Jakub Michalczyk
ELO 1455
FormLWLWL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Kesik
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+45
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+45)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)