18 Jul · 23:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gesiarz
ELO 1520
FormWLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Gesiarz
MB
🇵🇱Mateusz Baran
ELO 1516
FormWWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Gesiarz
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.