18 Jul · 21:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1418
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Adamus
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1398
FormWWWWL
52%
48%
🌟Adamus goes over total as favourite 71% (14)
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 70% · 1.42· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.