19 Jul · 20:10 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
PC
🇵🇱Pawel Chojnacki
ELO 1377
FormLLWLL
72%Win chancemodel fair 1.39Nocun
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1590
FormLWWLW
28%
72%
🌟Nocun stays under total as favourite 70% (30)
Fair odds · Nocun
Model 72% · 1.39vsMarket 69% · 1.46· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 57%Total ~76 pts
0-3
31%
1-3
26%
2-3
15%
3-2
12%
3-1
10%
Elo Gap+213
H2H40-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+213)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (40-14)