20 Jul · 00:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JS
🇵🇱Jakub Skorupa
ELO 1523
FormLLLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Nocun
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1592
FormWWLWL
42%
58%
🌟Nocun stays under total as favourite 70% (30)
Fair odds · Nocun
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+69
H2H17-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-14)