20 Jul · 05:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1628
FormLLWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Nowalinski
MN
🇵🇱Maciej Nowalinski
ELO 1714
FormWLWWW
41%
59%
🌟Nowalinski goes over total as favourite 63% (60)
Fair odds · Nowalinski
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+86
H2H35-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+86)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (35-17)