20 Jul · 05:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MW
🇵🇱Michal Wolny
ELO 1441
FormLLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Michalik
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1478
FormLWLWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Michalik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+37
H2H19-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.