20 Jul · 13:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1341
FormLLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sikon
MS
🇵🇱Mateusz Sikon
ELO 1363
FormLLLLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kaczmarek🌟Kaczmarek covers set handicap as underdog 78% (18)
Fair odds · Sikon
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+22
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.