20 Jul · 13:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KS
🇵🇱Karol Strowski
ELO 1785
FormLWWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Strowski
MN
🇵🇱Maciej Nowalinski
ELO 1714
FormLWWWL
58%
42%
🌟Strowski goes over total as favourite 70% (70)
Fair odds · Strowski
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 49% · 2.05· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~79 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+71
H2H19-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (19-17)