20 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TS
🇵🇱Tibor Spanik
ELO 1737
FormLWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Spanik
MN
🇵🇱Maciej Nowalinski
ELO 1714
FormLWWWL
53%
47%
🌟Nowalinski goes over total as underdog 70% (53)
Fair odds · Spanik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+23
H2H12-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.