20 Jul · 10:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1413
FormLWWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Adamus
MS
🇵🇱Mateusz Sikon
ELO 1363
FormLLLLW
55%
45%
🌟Adamus goes over total as favourite 68% (69)
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 59% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+50
H2H7-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+50)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-1)