20 Jul · 12:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KS
🇵🇱Karol Strowski
ELO 1785
FormLWWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Strowski
TS
🇵🇱Tibor Spanik
ELO 1737
FormLWWLL
55%
45%
🌟Strowski goes over total as favourite 70% (70)
Fair odds · Strowski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 40% · 2.53· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+48
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+48)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)