20 Jul · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RI
🇵🇱Rafal Idaczyk
ELO 1446
FormWWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Idaczyk
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1413
FormLWWWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Adamus🌟Idaczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (16)
Fair odds · Idaczyk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 60% · 1.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.