20 Jul · 12:50 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
MN
🇵🇱Maciej Nowalinski
ELO 1714
FormLWWWL
60%Win chancemodel fair 1.67Kosowski
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kosowski
ELO 1802
FormWLLLL
40%
60%
🌟Nowalinski goes over total as underdog 70% (53)
Fair odds · Kosowski
Model 60% · 1.67vsMarket 70% · 1.43· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+88
H2H25-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+88)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (25-8)