20 Jul · 14:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JC
🇵🇱Jakub Chmielowski
ELO 1613
FormLLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chmielowski
KW
🇵🇱Karol Wisniewski
ELO 1606
FormWWLLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Wisniewski🌟Chmielowski rarely covers set handicap as favourite 18% (34)
Fair odds · Chmielowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 52% · 1.94· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H9-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.