20 Jul · 13:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kuzmicz
ELO 1707
FormLWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kolodziej
KK
🇵🇱Krystian Kolodziej
ELO 1735
FormWLLWW
47%
53%
🌟Kuzmicz covers set handicap as underdog 74% (47)
Fair odds · Kolodziej
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.72· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H24-31
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.