21 Jul · 07:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1457
FormLLWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Baron
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1517
FormLWWLW
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Gajda🌟Gajda covers set handicap as underdog 69% (13)
Fair odds · Baron
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~80 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+60
H2H7-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-5)