21 Jul · 11:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MN
🇵🇱Maciej Nowalinski
ELO 1707
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Nowalinski
SS
🇵🇱Szymon Sporek
ELO 1677
FormLWLLL
53%
47%
🌟Sporek goes over total as underdog 71% (49)
Fair odds · Nowalinski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+30
H2H13-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.