21 Jul · 07:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kosowski
ELO 1807
FormWLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kosowski
AW
🇵🇱Adrian Wiecek
ELO 1803
FormLLLWW
50%
50%
🌟Wiecek goes over total as underdog 68% (65)
Fair odds · Kosowski
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 54% · 1.87· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H63-60
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.