21 Jul · 10:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AW
🇵🇱Adrian Wiecek
ELO 1803
FormLLLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Wiecek
KW
🇵🇱Krzysztof Wloczko
ELO 1741
FormLWLWW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Wiecek
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 66% · 1.52· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+62
H2H17-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-9)