21 Jul · 09:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1458
FormWWWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Kurek
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1515
FormLLWLL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Kurek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+57
H2H6-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+57)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-5)