21 Jul · 08:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RI
🇵🇱Rafal Idaczyk
ELO 1461
FormWWLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Idaczyk
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1458
FormWWWWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Idaczyk
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H5-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.