21 Jul · 12:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SS
🇵🇱Szymon Sporek
ELO 1677
FormLWLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Wloczko
KW
🇵🇱Krzysztof Wloczko
ELO 1741
FormLWLWW
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sporek🌟Sporek goes over total as underdog 71% (49)
Fair odds · Wloczko
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+64
H2H8-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-7)