21 Jul · 18:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JP
🇵🇱Jakub Pruszkowski
ELO 1608
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Koczyba
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1620
FormLWWWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Koczyba
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H11-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.