21 Jul · 20:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KK
🇵🇱Krystian Kolodziej
ELO 1754
FormWLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kolodziej
MN
🇵🇱Maciej Nowalinski
ELO 1723
FormLLWWW
53%
47%
🌟Nowalinski goes over total as underdog 67% (60)
Fair odds · Kolodziej
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+31
H2H27-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.