21 Jul · 19:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1379
FormLWWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Kowalczyk
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1311
FormLLWWL
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Golaszewski🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (25)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+68
H2H36-26
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+68)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (36-26)