21 Jul · 22:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SW
🇵🇱Stanislaw Wnek
ELO 1399
FormLWWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Wnek
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1340
FormLLWLL
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rolak🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Wnek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 51% · 1.98· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+59
H2H52-56
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)