21 Jul · 23:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇵🇱Jakub Skorupa
ELO 1513
FormLWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Skorupa
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1496
FormWWLWW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Skorupa
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H9-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.