22 Jul · 01:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1566
FormWLLWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Tkocz
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1640
FormLWLWW
42%
58%
🌟Lebek stays under total as underdog 67% (15)
Fair odds · Tkocz
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~75 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+74
H2H39-48
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+74)