22 Jul · 02:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1486
FormWWWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1554
FormLLWLL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+68
H2H21-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+68)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (21-12)