22 Jul · 02:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1327
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Rolak
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1336
FormLLWLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lukaszewski🌟Rolak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (24)
Fair odds · Rolak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H19-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.