22 Jul · 08:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1356
FormLLWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Sulkowski
MZ
🇵🇱Mariusz Zwolinski
ELO 1296
FormWWLLL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+60
H2H3-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-0)