22 Jul · 09:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1642
FormLLWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Tkocz
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1573
FormWLWLL
58%
42%
🌟Tkocz stays under total as favourite 64% (22)
Fair odds · Tkocz
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+69
H2H12-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-6)