22 Jul · 10:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1524
FormWLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Adamus
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1528
FormWWWLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H17-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.