22 Jul · 10:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1582
FormWWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Lebek
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1579
FormWWLWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 37% · 2.67· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H14-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.