22 Jul · 12:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1463
FormWWLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Smolka
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1541
FormWWWLW
42%
58%
🌟Gajda covers set handicap as underdog 69% (13)
Fair odds · Smolka
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~79 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+78
H2H18-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-12)