22 Jul · 13:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MO
🇵🇱Michal Oracz
ELO 1548
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Oracz
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1530
FormWLWWW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 35% · 2.83· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H7-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.