22 Jul · 13:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1427
FormWLLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Warpas
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1425
FormWWLWL
50%
50%
🌟Sulkowski goes over total as underdog 75% (20)
Fair odds · Warpas
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.