22 Jul · 13:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GA
🇵🇱Grzegorz Adamiak
ELO 1667
FormWWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Adamiak
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1646
FormWWWLL
52%
48%
🌟Adamiak goes over total as favourite 70% (20)
Fair odds · Adamiak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+21
H2H11-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.